Objectively Determined Resolution-Dependent Threshold Criteria for the Detection of Tropical Cyclones in Climate Models and Reanalyses
نویسندگان
چکیده
Objectively derived resolution-dependent criteria are defined for the detection of tropical cyclones in model simulations and observationally based analyses. These criteria are derived from the wind profiles of observed tropical cyclones, averaged at various resolutions. Both an analytical wind profile model and two-dimensional observed wind analyses are used. The results show that the threshold wind speed of an observed tropical cyclone varies roughly linearly with resolution. The criteria derived here are compared to the numerous different criteria previously employed in climate model simulations. The resulting method provides a simple means of comparing climate model simulations and reanalyses.
منابع مشابه
Improving the Detection and Tracking of Tropical Cyclones in Atmospheric General Circulation Models
Dynamical seasonal forecasts of tropical storm frequency require robust and efficient algorithms for detection and tracking of tropical storms in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). Tropical storms are generally detected when dynamic and thermodynamic variables meet specified criteria. Here, it is shown that objectively defined modeland basin-dependent detection criteria improve sim...
متن کاملHurricane Prediction with Python
The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global spectral model used for aviation weather forecast. It produces forecasts of wind speed and direction, temperature, humidity and precipitation out to 192 hr every 6 hours over the entire globe. The horizontal resolution in operational version of the GFS is about 25 km. Much longer integration of sim...
متن کاملHow Well are Tropical Cyclones Represented in Reanalysis Data Sets?
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are identified and tracked in six recent reanalysis data sets and compared with those from the IBTrACS best track archive. Results indicate that nearly every cyclone present in IBTrACS over the period 1979-2012 can be found in all six reanalyses using a tracking and matching approach. However, TC intensities are significantly under-represented in the reanalyses compared ...
متن کاملAN APPROACH TOWARDS WAVE CLIMATE STUDY IN THE PERSIAN GULF AND THE GULF OF OMAN: SIMULATION AND VALIDATION
This article describes the 11-year wave simulation (1992-2002) in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman using the input data derived from European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The ECMWF 10 meter wind field and spectral wave boundary condition at 18 ْN degree are input into one of the latest versions of numerical wave models (3rd generation) after a few local modifications. ...
متن کاملAssessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall
We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981-2000 and will increase ...
متن کامل